October 21, 2011
Tunisians take their next step toward democracy on Sunday, casting ballots for an assembly that will draft a new constitution and pave the way for long-awaited presidential elections. Neighbors in the region and observers around the world wait expectantly to gauge the outcome of the landmark vote and whether it will augur well for the next chapter of the Arab Spring. The following materials provide expert analysis and essential background on some of the central issues facing the countries in the throes of this historic transformation.
In Egypt and Tunisia, women are both hopeful and fearful about what the Arab revolutions might mean for them. But as constitutions in these countries are being rewritten, women hope to push their own liberation.
Tunisians confront a daunting array of choices as they head to the polls. However, the elections will be but the first step in a political process that is only just beginning, says CFR’s Isobel Coleman.
Tunisian human rights activist Moncef Marzouki asks if the country will “act as a beacon of hope for its neighbors by passing its first democratic test” or “slide yet again into tyranny.”
Fadil Aliriza writes from Tunisia that elections are “only the first step on Tunisia’s path to democracy” and the people who overthrew a government in January will find out whether they have what it takes to build a new one.
Since the fall of its authoritarian regime, Tunisia has balanced the revolutionary urge for change with a pragmatic need for continuity, write Rasmus Alenius Boserup and Fabrizio Tassinari of the Danish Institute for International Studies. While removal of a corrupt regime often proves bumpy, in Tunisia, a lively nascent democracy has emerged, deserving of the West’s support.
Marc Lynch writes that the ascent of Tunisia’s long-banned Islamist party al-Nahda is fueling “a dangerous polarization,” including frightening many secularists and women who fear for their place in the new Tunisia.
As Tunisia moves away from its former regime, policymakers need to seize the historic opportunity to review the foundations of the country’s economic strategy and overcome its key challenges, says Laycen Achy.
Muammar al-Qaddafi betrayed his own revolution, just as the other Arab strongmen of his generation had. His death marks the end of the rule of these old-style nationalist leaders, writes CFR’s Mohamad Bazzi.
There are many reasons for the Obama administration’s passivity during the Arab Spring, but perhaps none is more helpful in explaining it than the notion of “declinism,” writes Shadi Hamid.
The Arab revolts caught Middle East experts by surprise because they focused on explaining the stability of autocracies instead of looking at the hidden forces driving change. As they wipe the egg off their faces, they need to reconsider long-held assumptions about the Arab world, writes F. Gregory Gause III.
Hussein Agha and Robert Malley analyze the “counterrevolution” in the Middle East and discuss the potential long-term ramifications for political transitions in the region.
In 1848, a wave of popular revolutions rocked Europe’s authoritarian regimes. How those upheavals played out holds lessons for the future of the Arab Spring, writes Jonathan Steinberg.
The prospect of achieving decisive power across the region has unleashed an unprecedented debate over the character of the emerging political orders that Islamic activists are helping to build in the region.
Despite its vows to speed Egypt toward elections, the country’s military leadership is actually ambivalent about democracy, primarily concerned with preserving stability and their privileges. But having unleashed democracy, the military may not be able to control it–especially if Washington keeps up the pressure to move forward, write Jeff Martini and Julie Taylor.
Kept guessing by the military leaders and pressured by a small activist base that disdains working within the system, the same Egyptians who led the Tahrir uprising are now losing out, writes Thanassis Cambanis.
The Egyptian political spectrum is complicated and in flux, with crisscrossing fault lines that defy easy characterization. Four different sets of players will determine the country’s democratic future: the political parties, the military, the former ruling National Democratic Party, and the protest movements.
CFR’s Steven Cook assesses the insecurity and unrest in Egypt as the country prepares for parliamentary elections in November. Cook, who was in Cairo when the revolt broke out, recently published The Struggle for Egypt–a new book providing one of the first historical analyses of the uprising.
To understand the Brotherhood’s prospects in Egypt’s upcoming elections, one has to understand the organization itself, writes Eric Trager. This intensely disciplined operation has an intricate system for recruitment and promotion and a devoutly loyal membership–one likely to triumph at the polls and move Egypt in a theocratic, anti-Western direction.
A worsening of Egyptian-Israeli relations will threaten regional stability and jeopardize Egypt’s transition to democracy. Egypt’s military rulers must be careful to keep anti-Israel rhetoric from spiraling out of control, writes Daniel C. Kurtzer.
This White House fact sheet details the steps taken toward ending the Syrian government’s violence, arrests, and torture, supporting the Syrian people’s universal rights, and pushing for a democratic transition.
The Security Council failed to adopt a resolution condemning human rights violations in Syria, due to a veto by Russia and China.
The process of political change must ultimately be led by Syrians, says U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert S. Ford, even if it is more difficult and less controllable than the international community would like.
Theo Padnos explains how Bashar al-Assad’s regime exacerbated the Alawi-Sunni rivalry, bringing the country to the brink of today’s sectarian war.
During the Arab Spring, Obama seemed to outsource much of his Syria policy to Ankara. But as Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been unable to convince the Syrian dictator to reform, Obama must now formulate his own plans, writes Tony Badran.
Post-Qaddafi Libya will face difficulties with rebel infighting, the anger of Qaddafi loyalists, and more, but the long-time dictator’s death also creates an opening for a more peaceful country. CFR’s Richard Haass, Ed Husain, and Ray Takeyh weigh Libya’s prospects.
This timeline offers a breakdown of decisive battles and political developments in Libya’s uprising against Muammar al-Qaddafi.
With the death of Qaddafi, the West must plan for post-conflict stabilization and reconstruction, write James Dobbins and Frederic Wehrey. Given the mixed results of Western ventures in Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan, it is worth examining how Libya compares in terms of size, wealth, homogeneity, geography, and political maturity.
The instability in Libya could lead to a humanitarian disaster, the emergence of a new authoritarian ruler, or even the country’s dissolution. Daniel Serwer recommends in this Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memo that the EU lead a post-Qaddafi stabilization force in Libya.
Elections held too soon after a civil war often end in violence. The UN and the NTC should defer their plans until the rebel factions have disarmed and Libya has developed a civil society and modern political institutions, write Dawn Brancati and Jack L. Snyder.
Qaddafi spoke at the New York office of the Council on Foreign Relations on September 24, 2009, discussing why Libya decided to give up its chemical and biological weapons program in 2003; his perspective on terrorism; and how he would respond if Iran developed a nuclear weapon.
Yemen is experiencing serious political turmoil after more than three decades of President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s autocratic rule. To help stabilize Yemen, Gregory Johnsen argues that the United States must broaden its policy toward the country beyond counterterrorism efforts.
As the world’s attention shifted to Libya and elsewhere in the Arab world, Yemen’s pro-democracy protests were overshadowed by a struggle among three of the country’s most entrenched power brokers, writes Letta Tayler.
In this congressional testimony, Christopher Boucek discusses the challenge Yemen presents to U.S. policymakers. A key obstacle, he says, is that no one can really articulate what a “failed” Yemen looks like, much less the triggers that might lead to state failure.
A resurgent al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula may be able to exploit the mounting political unrest in Yemen. This Backgrounder profiles the group, its history, and discusses U.S. counterterrorism operations against its members.
The international community has failed to take a stand on the brutal crackdown in Yemen, revealing a double standard on the Arab Spring uprisings, writes Ibrahim Sharqieh. He says it’s clear that the United States and its allies are interested only in “regime renovation” in Yemen, not regime change.
Ali Abdullah Saleh’s return to Sanaa takes Yemen to the brink of civil war, writes Bruce Riedel. Chaos on the Arabian Peninsula’s southern tip is dangerous for the Saudis and America and good news for al-Qaeda.
- Tunisians vote in elections seen as Arab world bellwether (ctv.ca)
- Tunisia set to vote in first free elections (today.msnbc.msn.com)
- Emotions abound on eve of Tunisia election – Aljazeera.net (news.google.com)
- Tunisia’s election: a day of hope for the entire Arab world | Moncef Marzouki (guardian.co.uk)
- Tunisians to elect new assembly (cbc.ca)
- Tunisia Holds First Election Since Revolt Sparked Arab Spring (businessweek.com)
- Tunisia votes in first free poll (mirror.co.uk)
- Tunisians get ready for first election of Arab Spring (cnn.com)
- You: Tunisia holds first Arab Spring elections (france24.com)
- Tunisian Islamists to do well in first “Arab Spring” vote (mb50.wordpress.com)