Europe or Eurabia?

Daniel Pipes 14 Apr 2008

The future of Europe is in play. Will it turn into “Eurabia,” a part of the Muslim world? Will it remain the distinct cultural unit it has been over the last millennium? Or might there be some creative synthesis of the two civilizations?

The answer has vast importance. Europe may constitute a mere 7 percent of the world’s landmass but for five hundred years, 1450-1950, for good and ill, it was the global engine of change. How it develops in the future will affect all humanity, and especially daughter countries such as Australia which still retain close and important ties to the old continent.

I foresee potentially one of three paths for Europe: Muslims dominating, Muslims rejected, or harmonious integration.

(1) Muslim domination strikes some analysts as inevitable. Oriana Fallaci found that “Europe becomes more and more a province of Islam, a colony of Islam.” Mark Steyn argues that much of the Western world “will not survive the twenty-first century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes, including many if not most European countries.” Such authors point to three factors leading to Europe’s Islamization: faith, demography, and a sense of heritage.

The secularism that predominates in Europe, especially among its elites, leads to alienation about the Judeo-Christian tradition, empty church pews, and a fascination with Islam. In complete contrast, Muslims display a religious fervor that translates into jihadi sensibility, a supremacism toward non-Muslims, and an expectation that Europe is waiting for conversion to Islam.

The contrast in faith also has demographic implications, with Christians having on average 1.4 children per woman, or about one third less than the number needed to maintain their population, and Muslims enjoying a dramatically higher, if falling, fertility rate. Amsterdam and Rotterdam are expected to be in about 2015 the first large majority-Muslim cities. Russia could become a Muslim-majority country in 2050. To employ enough workers to fund existing pension plans, Europe needs millions of immigrants and these tend to be disproportionately Muslim due to reasons of proximity, colonial ties, and the turmoil in majority-Muslim countries.

In addition, many Europeans no longer cherish their history, mores, and customs. Guilt about fascism, racism, and imperialism leave many with a sense that their own culture has less value than that of immigrants. Such self-disdain has direct implications for Muslim immigrants, for if Europeans shun their own ways, why should immigrants adopt them? When added to the already-existing Muslim hesitations over much that is Western, and especially what concerns sexuality, the result are Muslim populations that strongly resist assimilation.

The logic of this first path leads to Europe ultimately becoming an extension of North Africa.

(2) But the first path is not inevitable. Indigenous Europeans could resist it and as they make up 95 percent of the continent’s population, they can at any time reassert control, should they see Muslims posing a threat to a valued way of life.

This impulse can already be seen at work in the French anti-hijab legislation or in Geert Wilders’ film, Fitna. Anti-immigrant parties gain in strength; a potential nativist movement is taking shape across Europe, as political parties opposed to immigration focus increasingly on Islam and Muslims. These parties include the British National Party, Belgium’s Vlaamse Belang, France’s Front National, the Austrian Freedom Party, the Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, the Danish People’s Party, and the Swedish Democrats.

They will likely continue to grow as immigration surges ever higher, with mainstream parties paying and expropriating their anti-Islamic message. Should nationalist parties gain power, they will likely seek to reject multiculturalism, cut back on immigration, encourage repatriation of immigrants, support Christian institutions, increase indigenous European birthrates, and broadly attempt to re-establish traditional ways.

Muslim alarm will likely follow. American author Ralph Peters sketches a scenario in which “U.S. Navy ships are at anchor and U.S. Marines have gone ashore at Brest, Bremerhaven or Bari to guarantee the safe evacuation of Europe’s Muslims.” Peters concludes that because of European’s “ineradicable viciousness,” its Muslims “are living on borrowed time” As Europeans have “perfected genocide and ethnic cleansing,” Muslims, he predicts, “will be lucky just to be deported,” rather than killed. Indeed, Muslims worry about just such a fate; since the 1980s, they have spoken overtly about Muslims being sent to gas chambers.

Violence by indigenous Europeans cannot be precluded but nationalist efforts will more likely take place less violently; if any one is likely to initiate violence, it is the Muslims. They have already engaged in many acts of violence and seem to be spoiling for more. Surveys indicate, for instance, that about 5 percent of British Muslims endorse the 7/7 transport bombings. In brief, a European reassertion will likely lead to on-going civil strife, perhaps a more lethal version of the fall 2005 riots in France.

(3) The ideal outcome has indigenous Europeans and immigrant Muslims finding a way to live together harmoniously and create a new synthesis. A 1991 study, La France, une chance pour l’Islam (France, an Opportunity for Islam) by Jeanne-Hélène Kaltenbach and Pierre Patrick Kaltenbach promoted this idealistic approach. Despite all, this optimism remains the conventional wisdom, as suggested by an Economist leader of 2006 that concluded that dismissed for the moment at least, the prospect of Eurabia as “scaremongering.”

This is the view of most politicians, journalists, and academics but it has little basis in reality. Yes indigenous Europeans could yet rediscover their Christian faith, make more babies, and again cherish their heritage. Yes, they could encourage non-Muslim immigration and acculturate Muslims already living in Europe. Yes, Muslim could accept historic Europe. But not only are such developments not now underway, their prospects are dim. In particular, young Muslims are cultivating grievances and nursing ambitions at odds with their neighbors.

One can virtually dismiss from consideration the prospect of Muslims accepting historic Europe and integrating within it. U.S. columnist Dennis Prager agrees: “It is difficult to imagine any other future scenario for Western Europe than its becoming Islamicized or having a civil war.”

But which of those two remaining paths will the continent take? Forecasting is difficult because crisis has not yet struck. But it may not be far off. Within a decade perhaps, the continent’s evolution will become clear as the Europe-Muslim relationship takes shape.

The unprecedented nature of Europe’s situation also renders a forecast exceedingly difficult. Never in history has a major civilization peaceably dissolved, nor has a people ever risen to reclaim its patrimony. Europe’s unique circumstances make them difficult to comprehend, tempting to overlook, and virtually impossible to predict. With Europe, we all enter into terra incognita.

Mr. Pipes is director of the Middle East Forum and Taube/Diller distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University. He is in Australia for the Intelligence Squared debate to take place this evening in Sydney. This article derives from a talk he delivered yesterday to the Quadrant.

http://www.analyst-network.com/article.php?art_id=1962

JFK plot suspect committed in Trinidad

By MICHAEL MELIA | Monday, Apr 14 2008 4:43 PM

Last Updated: Monday, Apr 14 2008 4:53 PM

A Muslim cleric suspected in an alleged plot to blow up New York’s John F. Kennedy Airport has been hospitalized in Trinidad after suffering a mental breakdown, his lawyer said Monday.

Kareem Ibrahim has wept, rambled incoherently and often appeared agitated in recent meetings, said defense attorney Farid Scoon, who is trying to block his client’s extradition to the United States.

“He has been delusional, paranoid, with changes of personality,” Scoon told The Associated Press in a telephone interview. “It’s not like you’re speaking to somebody who’s absolutely out of it, but if you sit long enough with him, you see he’s not with it.”

Trinidadian authorities hospitalized Ibrahim on April 7, removing him from a jail where he had been held pending U.S. attempts to extradite him and two other men in the alleged plot.

The other two suspects, Abdel Nur and Abdul Kadir, both from Guyana, are fighting their extradition as well.

A lower court approved Ibrahim’s extradition in February, but Scoon filed an appeal, which will be heard in July.

Ibrahim’s lawyers previously had argued that he should not be sent to the U.S. because he suffers from diabetes and claustrophobia. Scoon said the defendant’s hospitalization shows his physical and mental health have declined and it would be “unjust and oppressive” to send him to the United States, where he could face up to life in prison if convicted.

Robert Nardoza, a spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, said his office would not comment on Ibrahim’s condition.

St. Ann’s Psychiatric Hospital in Port-of-Spain confirmed Ibrahim was a patient but would not disclose details about his condition. Jail officials declined comment.

Ibrahim, a cleric at a Trinidad mosque, was arrested last June and accused of conspiring to blow up fuel lines feeding the JFK airport. The reputed ringleader of the alleged plot, U.S. citizen and former airport cargo employee Russell Defreitas, is in custody in New York awaiting trial.

Lawyers for the suspects have argued that a confidential U.S. government informant entrapped the men into plotting the attack, but that there never was any real threat.

“They have maintained all along that a certain gentleman, the source, is an agent provocateur who came to them with the expressed purpose of involving them in this quite outlandish plot to blow up the JFK airport,” Scoon said.

A U.S. indictment charges the men with conspiring to “cause death, serious bodily injury and extensive destruction.”

http://www.bakersfield.com/893/story/417182.html

Jordan Islamists warn of social ‘explosion’

AMMAN: Jordan’s main opposition party the Islamic Action Front (IAF) warned yesterday of social unrest as a result of “insufficient” government policies to tackle soaring prices in the cash-strapped country. “People’s patience has limits, and I think that in the coming days there will be an explosion, a very big explosion, and nobody can predict its repercussions and/or results,” Zaki Bani Rsheid, secretary general of the IAF, told AFP. “The authorities address the issue of rising prices in insufficient wa
ys, which do not solve the roots of the problem.
Prices in Jordan have risen sharply this year, with the cost of domestic fuel up by 76.1 percent since January and electricity prices up by as much as 38 percent. Food prices have also risen and the International Monetary Fund projects inflation of nine percent in 2008, up from 5.4 percent last year. King Abdullah II instructed the government on Sunday to take urgent steps to curb high prices. “Swift government measures are required to protect citizens from rising prices. It is important that such steps ha
ve positive effects that are clearly felt by people,” the king told a cabinet meeting, according to the palace. - AFP

http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.php?newsid=MTEyNzUyMjQ3NA==

Apr 14, 2008 21:09 | Updated Apr 15, 2008 10:24

Social site is fast growing dot-com

By ABE SELIG

As Islam continues to expand globally, surpassing Roman Catholicism as the world’s fastest-growing religion, a social media Web site for Muslims - Muxlim.com - is hoping to compete with the popular online networking sites Myspace and Facebook.

But a quick browsing of Muxlim.com revealed user profiles fraught with angry messages and outright vulgarity in reference to Jews, Israel, and other non-Muslims.

Muxlim.com, which was launched in 2006 by two Scandinavian-based entrepreneurs, pushed forward the objective of creating the most popular Muslim social media Web site in the world. Within a year it attracted more than a million users from 190 countries across the globe.

Muxlim.com has been recognized as one of Europe’s best tech start-ups by Red Herring, an American business technology journal.

“The recognition of Muxlim.com as one of Europe’s most innovative and successful companies is a great honor for both the company and the Muslim community,” said Muxlim.com founder and CEO Muhammad el-Fatatry. “Our objective was to create an online environment where Muslims and non-Muslims can enjoy social media in a safe and friendly atmosphere.”

A press release calling attention to Muxlim.com’s achievements mentioned the growth of Internet use as a concern for parents and a possible danger for kids. “A recent survey by the UK’s London School of Economics (LSE), entitled ‘EU Kids Online,’ discovered that more than 60 percent of British children have been accidentally exposed to adult material online,” read the press release. “The figure for American children was also significant, at 42%.”

“We know that a huge number of Internet users, in particular parents, want access to an online experience that does not expose people to vulgarity, offensive content, and adult material,” Fatatry said. ”

At the same time it’s vital that social media is engaging, user-friendly and fun. Muxlim.com achieves all this, and we have attracted a vibrant and friendly community with a welcoming demeanor and a sense of humor.”

Despite such comments by its creators, Muxlim.com includes content that is far from friendly and welcoming, especially to Israelis and Jews.

One page, a profile in the name of ex-Hamas leader Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, who was killed in an Israeli air strike in 2004, provides an extensive biography on the life and death of a man whom the Chicago Tribune once quoted as saying, “We will kill Jews everywhere.”

The biography on Muxlim.com features a paragraph entitled “Why was he assassinated?” The first sentence reads, “The same question was answered when the Jews (the descendents of apes and swine) assassinated sheikh Ahmad Yassin.”

Yassin, the leader of Hamas prior Rantisi, was also killed in an Israeli air strike in 2004 during an onslaught of Hamas-executed suicide bombings across Israel at that time. Yassin, too, has a featured profile on Muxlim.com, in which viewers can read some of his famous statements, including, “We will wait and see how many Israelis will cry,” in reference to Hamas attacks on Israeli civilians during the second Intifada.

Other profiles are more subtle. One user on the site goes by the name “jewsdidwtc”, an apparent inference that Jews are responsible for the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City.

Another user, “sister_harb”, who identifies herself as a 41-year-old posting from Finland, features a profile picture of the Palestinian flag with the shahada, or Islamic declaration of faith, superimposed across it. Her “likes” include, “Palestine, walking in the forest after the rain, and several other beautiful things in life.” When the viewer scrolls down, her profiles reveals hyperlinks to the following topics: “Hamas Song, Hamas’s Victory in Gaza June 2007, and the Battle of the Lions - Izzadin A-Qassam Brigades,” among other things.

Asked to respond to these posting, Fatatry replied told The Jerusalem Post that “As a social media Web site hosting millions of pages of user-generated content, [Muxlim.com] must abide by the laws of Finland and the EU with regards to content submitted by users. This simply means that we can only take down content in response to a report made by a user. If we decide to remove content without such a report, we would be automatically considered an editorial Web site, which is not compatible with our vision and message as a company.”

However, in addition to being a place for Muslims to meet and discuss pertinent issues online, the site’s stated goals include promises to refrain from publishing offensive and adult content. It is unclear, however, if “offensive material” means material offensive to the Muslim community, or the much wider base of Internet users worldwide.

“We do not condone any form of racism, or any offensive references to the Jewish people,” Fatatry continued, “Any reports we receive regarding such content will be taken very seriously, and will be treated like all other reports we receive on the site.” Fatatry said that the Post’s queries had brought the postings in question to his attention for the first time.

Fatatry continued to say that his group would not like to see the Web site become a hotbed for hostility, but rather a contributing factor towards peace.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1208179714081&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

http://www.brunei-online.com/bb/tue/apr15h35.htm

Poorly trained prison officers are turning Belmarsh Muslims into extremists

By JAMES SLACK - More by this author » Last updated at 08:49am on 15th April 2008

Under fire: Convicted terrorist Abu Qatada is an inmate at Belmarsh where prison officers are ‘insufficiently trained’ to tackle radicalisation

Guards at the prison housing Britain’s most dangerous terror convicts are “insufficiently trained” in how to combat radicalisation without alienating mainstream Muslims.

Anne Owers, the Chief Inspector of Prisons, said staff at Belmarsh did not understand the “complexities” of dealing with the maximum security jail’s 200 Islamic prisoners.

The 900-inmate jail in South-East London holds a number of convicted terrorists - including some housed in a “jail within a jail”.

Inmates at the jail include Abu Hamza and Abu Qatada.

Mrs Owers said: “This group provided a challenge to staff and managers, both in relation to their own approach and behaviour, and the risk that they might influence other disaffected prisoners.

“There was clearly a concern that these minority views should not spread. But conversely there was a real danger that the alienation of Muslim prisoners in general, and the suspicion with which they perceived they were treated, would in fact feed radicalisation.”

Nearly two-thirds of Muslims said they had felt unsafe and the same proportion claimed to have been victimised by staff.

Whereas 70 per cent of non-Muslim prisoners said they could turn for help to a member of staff, this was the case for only 40 per cent of Muslims.

Belmarsh: The prison officers were criticised for not understanding the ‘complexities’ of dealing with the jail’s 200 Islamic prisoners

Mrs Owers said: “These figures are troubling, and suggest a high degree of alienation among these prisoners, and a distrust between them and staff,” said the chief inspector.

“Any intervention by staff risked being interpreted by disaffected Muslims as deliberately provocative, and there were also claims of inappropriate behaviour by them towards female staff.

“However, the converse was also true: that any conversion to Islam, or any gathering of Muslim prisoners to pray or associate, could be interpreted wrongly by staff as threatening and evidence of radicalisation, with the perverse effect of alienating the great majority of practising Muslims.

“These are very important and difficult issues, which have a resonance far outside Belmarsh.

“The Belmarsh imams were aware of, and sensitive to, their importance, and had the support of prison managers in trying to manage them. However, it was not apparent that all staff understood the complexities within and around their Muslim population, or were able to establish effective and appropriate relationships with them.

There have claims that parts of Belmarsh prison have become dominated by extremists. Prison officers report that - if an officer confronts a Muslim prisoner - he or she often finds themselves surrounded by five or six other Muslim inmates.

Ministers fear that in Belmarsh and other jails holding extremists, there is a danger of young inmates being turned to extremism.

Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Herbert said: “Prison staff are struggling with the special demands of a Muslim population which has doubled in the last six years.

“We cannot allow prisons to become places where radicalisation takes place.

“Following concerns raised by the Prison Officers’ Association, the Government should publish an assessment of the scale of this problem and their strategy to deal with it.”

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=559742&in_page_id=1770&ito=1490

Hamas MP: Islam Will Conquer Europe and the Two Americas (Video)

Mon, Apr 14, 2008 at 10:14:44 am PST

Broadcast on official Hamas television (Al Aqsa TV) April 11, 2008, Hamas member of Parliament Yunis Al-Astal explains that the destruction of the Jews is just a precursor to Islam’s conquest of the entire world. (Courtesy of MEMRI TV.)

Jimmy Carter wants us to engage in dialog with people like this.

Click picture to play video. Requires Windows Media Player; Mac users should install Flip4Mac.

Yunis Al-Astal: Allah has chosen you for Himself and for His religion, so that you will serve as the engine pulling this nation to the phase of succession, security, and consolidation of power, and even to conquests thorough da’wa and military conquests of the capitals of the entire world. Very soon, Allah willing, Rome will be conquered, just like Constantinople was, as was prophesized by our Prophet Muhammad. Today, Rome is the capital of the Catholics, or the Crusader capital, which has declared its hostility to Islam, and has planted the brothers of apes and pigs in Palestine in order to prevent the reawakening of Islam – this capital of theirs will be an advanced post for the Islamic conquests, which will spread through Europe in its entirety, and then will turn to the two Americas, and even Eastern Europe.

I believe that our children or our grandchildren will inherit our Jihad and our sacrifices, and Allah willing, the commanders of the conquest will come from among them. Today, we instill these good tidings in their souls, and by means of the mosques and the Koran books, and the history of our Prophets, his companions, and the great leaders, we prepare them for the mission of saving humanity from the hellfire on the brink of which they stand.

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/29616_Hamas_MP-_Islam_Will_Conquer_Europe_and_the_Two_Americas_(Video)#rss

Jihad: Muslims Will Conquer Rome - Islam Will Rule the World

Exclusive: Another Syrian armored division masses on Israeli-Lebanese borders

April 14, 2008, 7:52 PM (GMT+02:00)

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that Damascus has deployed the 10th armored corps at the Massaneh crossing of Mount Hermon. It links up with the northwestern positions the 14th division took up last month on the Syrian-Israeli border which cuts through the Hermon range.

Syrian troops are now strung along a continuous crescent-shaped line from the central Lebanese mountains through Mt Dov on the western slopes of Mt. Hermon and up to southeastern Lebanon. This deployment, commanding Syria’s Israeli and Lebanese borders, is under the command of the president’s brother, Maher Assad.

The 10th armored corps was moved forward straight after Syria’s snap civil defense exercise which crashed after three hours last Thursday, April 10. The exercise was ordered without notice by president Bashar Assad on the last day of Israel’s five-day homeland defense drill.

DEBKAfile’s military sources are criticizing Israel officials for attributing Syria’s latest military movements to domestic troubles inside the Syrian leadership. They say this is throwing sand in the public’s eyes and at one with the government’s practice of playing down all the heightened military threats to Israel – whether from Syria, the Lebanese Hizballah or the Palestinian Hamas in Gaza.

The IDF’s Northern Command officers report that the Syrian army’s buildup opposite Israel has accelerated in April and warn that its units are arrayed for a quick transition to attack mode.

The link-up between Syria’s 10th and 14th divisions on the border running through Mt Hermon should have been a wake-up call for the government in Jerusalem, they say, and elicited counter-moves to show Damascus that Israel is ready to meet every contingency.

Sunday, April 13, prime minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas met briefly to rough out the position Abbas will put before President George W. Bush whom he meets at the White House in ten days. Olmert made the gesture of licensing the entry to Israel of 5,000 Palestinian construction workers. This gesture was challenged by security services as a carrying the risk of terrorist infiltration and by economic leaders who say the Palestinians will take Israeli jobs.

Foreign minister Tzipi Livni is in Qatar, where she is to address the 8th annual Doha Forum on Democracy, Development and Free Trade. Qatari rulers plan to persuade her that Israel should back their initiatives to patch up quarrels in the Arab world between Egypt and Syria and the Palestinian Fatah and Hamas. Neither is in Israel’s interest, because conciliation would confer legitimacy on Arab and Islamist radicalism and spur its expansion.

Livni, who knew she would come under pressure during her Doha visit, insisted on going through with it andtreating it as a breakthrough in Israeli relations with the Gulf emirates.

http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5190

AQIM’s new kidnapping strategy

By OLIVIER GUITTA (Middle East Times)

Published: March 24, 2008

A Tuareg tribesman in Mali.

TOOLBAR

Print Story

Add Comments

Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb – or AQIM – kidnapped two Austrian citizens in Tunisia on Feb. 22. The hostages are reportedly being held in northern Mali and Austrian authorities, with the help of Libya, are trying hard to obtain the release of their citizens.

This latest action from AQIM should not come as a surprise, for several reasons.

First, AQIM has made no secret that targeting foreign nationals has become one of their priorities. In Algeria, AQIM recently targeted U.S. and Russian contractors, and the U.N. compound in Algiers, while Western nations have warned their citizens of the risks associated with remaining in the country. AQIM also recently almost succeeded in kidnapping two French executives. After this incident, a number of French nationals (mostly women and children) left Algeria to return to safer grounds. The idea behind this strategy is to kill the tourism industry and dry out foreign investment in the region.

Second, AQIM has a tradition of self-financing its operations mostly through kidnappings, racketeering and smuggling of all kinds. Interestingly enough, the kidnapping of the two Austrian tourists mirrors the operation led by the Algerian GSPC (the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat), now AQIM, in 2003 under the command of Abdel Rezak al-Para. Back then, 32 European tourists (including Austrian, Swiss and German nationals) were kidnapped in the Algerian Sahara.

Seventeen of them were freed thanks to a military operation led by Algerian forces, and the remaining 14 – one hostage had died – were released six months later after a large ransom was allegedly paid by German authorities. This money was used to buy substantial quantities of sophisticated weapons that Algerian security services seized in January 2004.

Today, AQIM’s first demand was the release of a number of prisoners held in Algeria and Tunisia, but later a ransom (reportedly 5 million euros, about $7.7 million) was added, and then AQIM dropped the release condition. This proves that the money issue was in reality what this kidnapping is all about.

Just a few weeks ago, the Saudi daily Asharq al-Awsat published a letter from AQIM entitled, “Call for help from the Islamic Maghreb.” In this letter, AQIM acknowledged that it is suffering from a lack of operatives and most importantly that its elements have “an urgent need of cash.”

Clearly, if Austria were to pay the ransom, AQIM would use the funds to rearm, regroup and rehire and would be emboldened to kidnap more foreign nationals.

Third, the fact that the hostages are presumably in northern Mali is also unsurprising. AQIM has been using northern Mali (in particular Timbuktu and Kidal) as sanctuaries. This is the ideal place to install a terrorist base, since the area is almost impossible to patrol for such a poor country. This area also represents a great hiding location from U.S. satellites since it is very mountainous and full of caves. Nonetheless, terrorists need to be on the move quite often: they use Toyota Land Cruisers and refueling stations buried in the ground that they locate thanks to GPS equipment. AQIM possesses heavy weapons, mortars and ground-air missiles, among other sophisticated equipment, such as scramblers for their Thuraya satellite telephone communications.

To make matters even more complicated and unstable, the area is home to the Tuareg, a Berber group whose main military group – The Alliance – is fighting Malian authorities. On March 20 violent clashes erupted between Malian forces and the Tuareg: eight people were killed and 33 Malian military personnel were kidnapped. Interestingly, the Tuareg went from being AQIM’s ally to AQIM’s foe.

Eglasse Ag Idar, the spokesman of The Alliance, recently told the French daily Le Figaro that the Malians do not want to die fighting al-Qaida: for them, it is an Arab problem that concerns the West. He added that, on the other hand, the Tuareg are motivated to fight al-Qaida in order to defend their territory. At the beginning of this month an AQIM cell was dismantled in the area and a big fish (Abu Osama) was caught, allegedly thanks to information provided by some Tuareg tribal leaders.

It seems that AQIM is really following al-Qaida in Iraq’s modus operandi. Indeed, after having imported suicide bombings to Algeria (mostly since the April 11, 2007 attacks), then recruiting teenagers, now AQIM is kidnapping foreign nationals. The example of the Austrian hostages might just be the start of a kidnapping wave.

–

Olivier Guitta, an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a foreign affairs and counterterrorism consultant, is the founder of the newsletter The Croissant (www.thecroissant.com).

http://www.metimes.com/International/2008/03/24/aqims_new_kidnapping_strategy/5871/

Proof of Iran’s military nuclear program

By OLIVIER GUITTA (Middle East Times)

Published: April 07, 2008

Despite the very flawed and much publicized December National Intelligence Estimate report on Iran, the U.N. Security Council recently passed a third set of sanctions designed to force Iran to halt its nuclear program. Indeed, except for a few credulous people and some in the U.S. intelligence community with a political agenda, most capitals in the world dismissed the NIE findings as bogus.

And now the International Atomic Energy Agency has joined the fray.

Interestingly, analyzing the findings of the NIE back in December, the French expert and director of the Fondation pour la Recherche Strategique (Foundation for Strategic Research), Francois Heisbourg, told the Swiss daily Le Temps, that this report’s conclusion could be the result of a revenge from some in U.S. intelligence against a president who put them in a tough spot during the Iraqi crisis.

He added very rightly so: “Compared to the NIE report on Iran, even Mohamed El Baradei [the IAEA's head] looks like a hawk”.

Now, while this fact was quite underreported, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) documents actually point to the existence of the military Iranian nuclear program. On Feb. 25, Olli Heinonen, the Finnish deputy director general of the IAEA, presented evidence of the existence of this.

Also, the French daily Le Monde got access to documents proving that Tehran pursued a military nuclear program after 2003, contrary to what the National Intelligence Estimate stated. The main document is a 2004 letter written by Mahdi Khaniki, one of the IAEA’s main interlocutors and former Iranian ambassador to Syria, to Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, the vice president of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI).

In this letter Mahdi Khaniki pointed out that the IAEA inspectors demanded to see the contracts for the purchase of spare parts used in the development of the centrifuges.

He wrote:

“At a meeting held on January 31, 2004 in the presence of Dr. Rohani [Hassan Rohani, the chief negotiator of the Iranian nuclear program until the end of 2005], the latter decided that these contracts should be prepared in accordance to the AEOI’s wishes, so they would be ready to be delivered to the IAEA. It is worth noting that the representative of the ministry of defense and of assistance to the armed forces said at the meeting that the contracts were drawn up for a presentation [to the IAEA]. However, portions of these contracts, which this writer viewed at the Ministry of Defense, were crossed out with black lines and the quantities did not appear; therefore, it seems that these contracts will raise more questions than those which [normally] should be submitted to the Agency [IAEA].”

Le Monde, citing sources close to an intelligence service, affirmed that this letter was part of “Project 13″ (also known as “Project for the disappearance of threats”), a project allegedly aimed at deceiving the IAEA inspectors.

For Iranian experts, quoted by Le Monde, this letter represents clear evidence of the involvement of the Iranian defense ministry in the nuclear dossier. This confirms suspicions about the military character of this program, while attesting of the efforts of the Iranians to conceal it.

Further proof of this came in when in mid-December 2006, U.S. intelligence services intercepted a conversation, between two unidentified officials at the Department of Defense in Tehran, reporting differences between officials of the AEOI and the Ministry of Defense. Indeed, one of the two interlocutors pointed out that: ” Currently, as for the CTBTO [Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization], I think that the Ministry of Defense must have the last word, because they [the leaders of the AEOI] know that ultimately we intend to conduct tests.”

In light of these new developments and the increasing worldwide consensus (from Europe to the Gulf), regarding the threat associated with the Iranian nuclear program, concerned nations will soon have to make a decision on a plan of action.

Will the U.N. sanctions be enough? Nothing is less sure. That’s why the ever growing military activity in the region does not bode well for a peaceful resolution of a thorny issue.

–

Olivier Guitta, an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a foreign affairs and counterterrorism consultant, is the founder of the newsletter The Croissant (WWW.THECROISSANT.COM).

http://www.metimes.com/International/2008/04/07/proof_of_irans_military_nuclear_program/3739/