How did the Shin Bet fail to spot the Hebron kidnap cell in time?

Analysis

Israel’s intelligence services have a remarkable record of success in the West Bank. Not this time. Hard lessons will have to be learned about the failure to thwart the killings of the three Israeli teens

July 4, 2014, 11:55 am
An Israeli soldier patrols near the area where the bodies of three Israeli teenagers were found, in the village of Halhul, near the West Bank city of Hebron, Tuesday, July 1, 2014. (photo credit: AP/Majdi Mohammed)

An Israeli soldier patrols near the area where the bodies of three Israeli teenagers were found, in the village of Halhul, near the West Bank city of Hebron, Tuesday, July 1, 2014. (photo credit: AP/Majdi Mohammed)

Ibrahim Hamed, the former head of Hamas’s military wing in the West Bank, the man responsible for the murders of dozens of Israelis, was thought of as a “ghost” for many years. Almost a legend. The Shin Bet and the Israel Defense Forces were not able to catch up to him, as he slipped through their grasp time and again. Only after eight years of pursuit was he captured in 2006 in a safe house in Ramallah’s al-Balou neighborhood.

People involved in the search for “The Sheikh” — who is today 49 and serving 54 life sentences — say one of the basic things that allowed him to evade capture for so long was his refusal to use a mobile phone. Israel’s security establishment managed to track his calls only twice over all those years, and even those instances were calls made from public phones.

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IAI To Transfer Spy Sat to Military Users

May. 11, 2014 – 02:32PM   |   By BARBARA OPALL-ROME  

The Ofek 10 satellite was launched on April 9 and carriers a synthetic aperture radar.

The Ofek 10 satellite was launched on April 9 and carriers a synthetic aperture radar. (Israel Aerospace Industries)

YEHUD, ISRAEL — A month after launching Israel’s newest spy satellite into space, Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), producer of the Ofek 10 and its advanced radar-imaging payload, is poised to transfer the strategic intelligence system to military hands.

IAI Chief Executive Yossi Weiss said Ofek 10 should be delivered to operational users “within weeks,” following extensive in-orbit testing by specialists with the company’s MBT Space Division here and Defense Ministry research and development authorities.

“So far, along all parameters, we’re quite satisfied,” Weiss said of the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite launched April 9 by an IAI-produced Shavit rocket.

“We’re taking our time to work through a very methodical and thorough testing program,” he said. “There will be no cutting corners. … And when it’s ready — within weeks — we will hand it over to the government of Israel to operate as an additional strategic asset for its use.” Continue reading

Analysing Terrorism from a Systems Thinking Perspective

 

Lukas Schoenenberger, Andrea Schenker-Wicki, Mathias Beck

Abstract

Given the complexity of terrorism, solutions based on single factors are destined to fail. Systems thinking offers various tools for helping researchers and policy makers comprehend terrorism in its entirety. We have developed a semi-quantitative systems thinking approach for characterising relationships between variables critical to terrorism and their impact on the system as a whole. For a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying terrorism, we present a 16-variable model characterising the critical components of terrorism and perform a series of highly focused analyses. We show how to determine which variables are best suited for government intervention, describing in detail their effects on the key variable—the political influence of a terrorist network. We also offer insights into how to elicit variables that destabilise and ultimately break down these networks. Because we clarify our novel approach with fictional data, the primary importance of this paper lies in the new framework for reasoning that it provides.

Full Text: PDF HTML

Matrix

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The active sum (AS in the last column on the right), is the sum of all of the direct influences (outgoing flows) that can be attributed to a certain variable, i.e., the sum of the values in the row of a single variable. The active sum thus indicates how strongly this variable affects or dominates the system, with a high active sum indicating great influence. The passive sum (PS second to last column) is the sum of all of the incoming flows and indicates how strongly the system affects or dominates a variable. To calculate the incoming and outgoing flows, one can take only the absolute values into account.

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Ukrainian Authorities plan to Attract `US Private Military Company Greystone ‘ according to the Ukrainian Secret Service ‘

#AceWorldNews – DNEPROPETROVSK – March 25 – Ukrainian authorities plan to attract US private military company Greystone Limited to suppress protest moods of the mostly Russian-speaking population in the east of the country.

According to Ukrainian Security Service, mercenaries will be engaged in political search and protection of state security over inability of Ukrainian law enforcement agencies to curb on leaders and activists of pro-Russian movement independently.

This initiative was put forward by oligarchs Ihor Kolomoyskyi, a co-owner of Ukraine’s PrivatBank, and Serhiy Taruta, head of the industrial union of Donbass, a coal basin in eastern Ukraine, as these business tycoons were appointed as governors in central Ukraine’s Dnepropetrovsk region and eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, respectively.

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The weekly briefing, 3 February 2014

Source: Intelligence unit– http://www.openbriefing.org/

Published: 3 February 2014

Filed: 3 February 2014

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Africa: Renamo adopts a more flexible approach to dialogue in Mozambique.

Americas: ICJ ruling on maritime border dispute gives symbolic victory to Peru over Chile.

Asia and Pacific: Philippine peace deal is marred by offensive against Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters.

Europe: Ukrainian government grants concessions to the opposition as international outcry grows.

Middle East: Violent clashes continue in the north and south of Yemen.

Polar regions: Shell calls off Arctic oil exploration.

Africa

Renamo adopts a more flexible approach to dialogue in Mozambique

On 31 January, the spokesman for the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo), Fernando Mazanga, indicated that the demand for parity with the incumbent Fremilo party – which came from the December 2012 electoral reforms – may no longer prove a prominent sticking point for further dialogue on the National Election Commission. The announcement marks a move towards a more flexible engagement in the negotiation process, following the recent Renamo party boycotting of negotiations with delegates of the government.

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The weekly briefing, 3 February 2014

 

Source: Intelligence unit– http://www.openbriefing.org/

Published: 3 February 2014

Filed: 3 February 2014

img29498

Africa: Renamo adopts a more flexible approach to dialogue in Mozambique.

Americas: ICJ ruling on maritime border dispute gives symbolic victory to Peru over Chile.

Asia and Pacific: Philippine peace deal is marred by offensive against Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters.

Europe: Ukrainian government grants concessions to the opposition as international outcry grows.

Middle East: Violent clashes continue in the north and south of Yemen.

Polar regions: Shell calls off Arctic oil exploration.

Africa

Renamo adopts a more flexible approach to dialogue in Mozambique

On 31 January, the spokesman for the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo), Fernando Mazanga, indicated that the demand for parity with the incumbent Fremilo party – which came from the December 2012 electoral reforms – may no longer prove a prominent sticking point for further dialogue on the National Election Commission. The announcement marks a move towards a more flexible engagement in the negotiation process, following the recent Renamo party boycotting of negotiations with delegates of the government.

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Shin Bet report: terror increase originating from West Bank

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Israeli soldiers on patrol in the West Bank city of Hebron, Sept. 23, 2013. (photo by Getty Images/Mamoun Wazwaz)

Israel’s Shin Bet is summing up 2013. The General Security Service, which is charged with preventing terrorist attacks in the country, released on Jan. 27 a detailed report covering 2013. The main data of this annual report points to a significant rise in terrorist attacks as compared to 2012. The number of attacks doubled in that time, from 578 in 2012 to 1,271 in 2013.

Summary⎙ Print The 2013 Shin Bet report indicates a rise in terror activities originating in the West Bank, attributed partly to the resignation of Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and the weakening of Fatah security mechanisms.

Author Shlomi Eldar Posted February 2, 2014

Translator(s)Danny Wool

According to the Shin Bet’s data, there was a drop in the number of casualties from terrorist attacks, with six in 2013, as compared to 10 in 2012. However, two reservations should be considered when making that comparison. The first is that in 2013, five Israelis were killed in attacks launched from the West Bank, as compared to zero in 2012. Furthermore, among the Israeli casualties listed by the Shin Bet for 2012 are the six soldiers who were killed in Operation Pillar of Defense in the Gaza Strip.

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